A question I get asked very often is “how many Short Sales are there?” Maybe a better question is how many Short Sales should there be?
We could answer the second question in several ways. But first lets talk about how many Short Sales are happening at this time. Unfortunately there doesn’t seem to be anyone trying to come up with any factual information on the subject. This is no doubt due to the difficulty of trying to compile the actual numbers. Think about it, the only way we could get accurate information would be to get an actual number of Short Sales from each and every lender no matter how big or small they are. That would be a tough task by itself. But then we would need to try to figure out how many of those the lender was in second (or third) position so we don’t end up counting the same Short Sale more than once.
I suppose it could be done, but to this point nobody is doing it as far as I can tell. We do know that the NAR in the spring of 2008 said that 18% of all sales nationally required a Short Sale. How they compiled that information I don’t know. But I haven’t seen them (or anyone else) come out with any statistics since then.
It is pretty obvious though that Short Sales are occurring far more frequently now than they were then. How can we confidently say that? One way is to look at MLS listings, we see listings much more frequently stating that they are Short Sales than we did early last year. Another way to tell is by dealing with the Loss Mitigation departments of the different lenders. Even though many of them have expanded their departments greatly to handle the influx of Short Sale offers, they are still swamped. The truth is that the evidence that there are more Short Sales now than ever before is everywhere around us, all we have to do is look.
If I had to guess how many Short Sales there are I would put the number somewhere around 20-25% of all sales nationally. Admittedly that is more of a guess than it is based on any concrete data. But it is the best that I’ve got at this point.
Of course some areas have a much higher percentage, and some a much lower percentage. It is not unusual for me to talk to a broker in Florida who tells me that over half of their listings are Short Sale listings. While in my Midwestern university town the number is probably a bit less than 10% of all sales.
But maybe the question we should ask is how many Short Sales should there be?
Wouldn’t it be true that almost every home that is foreclosed on could have been sold as a Short Sale? Not every one certainly, but probably 90 – 95% of them could have – and should have been.
Homeowners do Short Sales because most every time they are better off doing it. And lenders do Short Sales simply because they know that they will lose less money than if the home goes through foreclosure. So virtually every foreclosure could have and should have been a Short Sale.
In most any area that means there is potential for at least 10% more Short Sales than are currently happening, and in some areas with high foreclosure rates it could easily be a lot higher percentage than that. As agents and the public in general become more and more aware of Short Sales we will likely see many of the people who are now going through foreclosure taking advantage of the opportunity to so a Short Sale instead.
So the number of Short Sales is growing, and has the potential to grow considerably. In fact RealtyTrac a few months ago said that they expected Short Sales to be required in 50% of all sales nationally by the end of 2009! Now that number sounds rather high to me, I don’t really expect we will see anything close to that. But there is no doubt that for years to come Short Sale will be a significant part of the real estate market.
So agents who are interested in handling Short Sales, and who are good at it will very likely be quite successful over the next several years. Those agents who shy away from Short Sales will be fighting over an increasingly smaller part of the market.
Chris Badger
Strategic Loss Mitigation
“The Ultimate Short Sale Success System“